Ammo prices remain stable despite concerns

Mentor-On-The-Lake, Ohio — A press release from Vista Outdoors has sent a small tremor among the hunting and shooting community that ammunition and gunpowder shortages and spiking prices are just around the corner.

Yet scant evidence seems to exist that such dire worries are imminently looming, though ongoing and underlying roots could see the strangling ivy put a chokehold on ammo availability.

The letter was written by Vista’s Vice President of Sales, Sporting Products Brett Nelson and sent Dec. 7 of last year. Vista is a major player in the production of firearms ammunition for the government as well as private sectors. Among its brands are Federal and Remington ammunition.

As reported by Newsweek and various hunting-shooting insiders blogs and websites, Nelson’s letter reads: “Due to world events, our suppliers have notified us of unprecedented demand for and an anticipated global shortage of gunpowder, and thus has increased our prices substantially. We must therefore raise our pricing to help offset those increases.”

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Vista then went on to list its various price increases for 2024. Among them being: shotshell and rifle ammunition: – 1-7% each; handgun: – 1-5%; .22 long rifle/shorts: 1-5%; .22 Winchester Magnum and HMR: 1-7%; primers – 5%; Alliant Powder: 10% with limited availability.

From Vista’s announcement has arisen worries that ammunition availability will shrink, too. This, due to the increased demand for gunpowder. Several factors have led various firearms industry analysts to believe why an impending shortage is real and why it will likely eventually impact ammunition supplies to the shooting/hunting public.

Not surprisingly, the Ukraine War and the Middle East conflict are at the top of the list. Stocks of ammunition and the raw materials – primarily gunpowder – are being diverted to those situations.

Federal government regulations that were imposed as sanctions against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are likewise a factor. With the demise of Russian-made/cheap steel-case ammunition, American shooters no longer have access to that once-popular form of ammunition.

And some calibers appear at greater risk for price increases and availability. Among these calibers are two of the most obvious: 5.56 NATO and 9mm Luger.

Other such potentially contributing points are the general rise in inflations, increased shipping costs, the addition of ammunition-making equipment that is requiring capital expenditures, and rising labor costs.

However, whether the ammunition shortages and sky-high – if temporary – prices seen during the pre-COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing first years will return are still unknown. And whether all of this will result in another wave of panic buying likewise is a dark spot in the crystal ball of the firearms industry.

For now there is stability.

The highly respected Southerndefense.com tracks general ammunition prices and specific calibers. It uses its own proprietary algorithm. From a range of 1 to 100 – with “One reflecting extremely low pricing, 100 reflecting extremely high pricing, and 50 reflecting an equilibrium of pricing,” the current state of ammo pricing is rated at “43,” the group says.

“Our visitors use this index to determine, with one simple number, if right now is a good time to buy ammo or not,” the Southerndefense.com web site says.

Of course, not at calibers are equal. After reaching a spike of nearly 3-cents-per-round in January 2021, .22 long rifle ammunition has stabilized at less than 1-cent-per-round. The same generally low cost goes for the .380 ACP, a popular personal defense round.

The ever-popular 5.56 NATO round has shown some greater variations, but not a great deal. Yet after taking a huge dip at the end of June, the price of a round of .308 Winchester has climbed back up to a still-modest 67-cents-per-round as of Aug. 20.

In shotgun ammo, the 16-gauge and the 28-gauge shotshells have shown rises after taking early summer declines, a fact that seems to have come to play also in many other calibers and gauges.

Yet a check with some Ohio shooters and hunters has not revealed excessive prices or shortages.

Brian Holtcamp, of Lake County, uses only online ammunition buying for himself and his father. He buys the pair’s waterfowling loads in advance of the season by the case and has encountered “good availability at the usual prices I have always seen.”

Ohio Outdoor News columnist Steve Pollick, of Sandusky County, says he’s encountered “lots of hunting ammo” on the shelves of his local big box store but that the business “doesn’t sell the ‘bang-bang’ stuff.”

And Troy Conley of Brown County says while typically he can find what he wants he has seen how “prices definitely are up.”

For Greene County’s and frequent Ohio Outdoor News contributor Larry Moore, ammunition buying has become something of a science that he tracks regularly. Moore says he’s encountered spot shortages of the increasingly popular 28-gauge shotshells, steep prices for 16-gauge, along with some hard looking for the necessary gunpowder for reloading.

“And the price for lead shot is pretty high, too,” Moore says.

Maybe the best way to ease the threat of a sudden escalation in prices and a corresponding tumble in ammunition availability is to follow the advice of now-retired Ohio Division of Wildlife Assistant Chief Tom Rowan’s approach when buying ammunition.

“Whenever I go into a gun shop, I always buy a box of ammo whether I need it or not,” Rowan said.