Liberal duck seasons expected again in 2026 after results of 2025 federal survey

Washington — When the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service released its 2025 Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey Field Reports on July 3 – the precursor to the annual Waterfowl Population Status Report – you could almost hear the collective groan of waterfowl managers across North America.

The pilot-biologists who flew the early-spring survey across the U.S. and Canadian breeding grounds found mostly parched landscapes and dry wetlands – inhospitable conditions for breeding ducks. One prairie-Canada biologist, echoing the sentiments of others who flew the Dakotas, Montana, Manitoba, and elsewhere, wrote, “We arrived in the southern Saskatchewan grasslands to bleak conditions if you are a duck.”

Talk of future restrictive hunting seasons has dominated the conversation ever since.

Last Tuesday, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service finally released the Waterfowl Population Status Report. The findings were a mixed bag, which surprised many in waterfowl management circles.

The numbers

The estimate of total breeding ducks in the traditional survey area was 34 million, virtually unchanged from last year and 4% below the long-term average that dates back to 1955. However, the 2025 May pond count was down considerably from last year, coming in at about 4.2 million. That’s roughly 20% below last year’s estimate, and 41% below the long-term average. It was the lowest pond estimate since 2004.

While duck numbers are steady compared with last year, the significant decrease in ponds in 2025 “casts serious concern about the strength of the upcoming fall flight,” according to Dr. Frank Rohwer, president and chief scientist for Delta Waterfowl in Bismarck, N.D. 

“Duck production is not likely to be good this year,” Rohwer said, adding that May pond counts are a key indicator of breeding habitat conditions and potential production. “When you look at wetland conditions from May, they show it was very dry everywhere across the prairie pothole region except eastern South Dakota. The best hunting occurs in wet years when the fall flight has more young ducks in the migration.”

The federal survey is used to set hunting regulations for the following year. Based on the 2025 results, waterfowl hunters during the 2026-27 season will once again have another liberal season framework.

Species breakdown 

Mallards are estimated at 6.55 million, a 1% decrease from 2024, but 17% below the long-term average. The 2025 number is in stark contrast to 2014, when 10.9 million mallards – an all-time high – were estimated. More mallards settled in the Canadian prairies this spring, but they’re still well below the long-term average.

In addition to mallards, other puddle ducks, such as gadwalls, wigeon, shovelers, and pintails, increased, while both blue-winged teal and green-winged teal decreased.

Wigeon increased 9% to 3.19 million, the highest breeding population since 2016. They breed in the prairies and the Canadian Arctic.

“Wigeon are defying logic,” Rohwer said. “I have to believe the Arctic is producing more ducks than we thought.”

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Pintails increased 13% to 2.24 million, 13% higher than 2024.

“I think there’s new evidence that pintails in the Arctic are reproducing better than we gave them credit for,” Rohwer said – an important development with the prairies in a prolonged drought.

Gadwalls continue to thrive, Rohwer said, increasing 6% to 2.41 million, which is 17% above the long-term average. Blue-winged teal – which have the second highest breeding population behind mallards – declined 4% to 4.32 million, their lowest level since 2004. Green-winged teal, which nest primarily in the boreal forest areas, declined 15% to 2.55 million, although the population remains 16% above the long-term average.

Meanwhile, divers such as canvasbacks and redheads increased, while scaup (bluebill) populations continue to drop. Cans are estimated at 690,200, the most since 2017, while redheads increased 17% to 918,200. Scaup populations dropped 10% to 3.68 million.

In general, duck production on the prairies was considered fair to poor, with rains in late May helping support some nesting ducks. Most the of moisture, however, came too late for many species of prairie-nesting ducks.

“Ponds and mallards were a bit better than expected based on the pilot reports, but other than that, I think everything is in line with what I expected for this year,” said Nate Huck, Minnesota DNR migratory gamebird consultant.

Huck said duck populations this fall will look “very similar” to 2024. “However, like always, the weather will really determine what the fall looks like,” he added. 

“For next year, the recommendations based on our harvest strategies should be similar to this year, so we likely won’t see any major changes to our regulations,” Huck said.

Minnesota hasn’t had a restrictive duck season since the middle 1990s. According to Huck, in 1994, hunters had 40 days and a three-bird bag limit. In 1995 and 1996, hunters had 50 days and a six-bird bag limit. “We’ve consistently had 60-day seasons since 1997,” he said.

Goose numbers

Ducks might dominate the conversation around the federal survey, but the report also provides valuable insights into dark and light geese. Indeed, goose numbers are on par or significantly improved for waterfowlers hunting in the Central and Mississippi flyways, the latter of which includes Minnesota.

“Population estimates for many goose groups are encouraging this year, particularly for light geese …,” said Dr. Chris Nicolai, waterfowl scientist for Delta Waterfowl. “Coupled with average to above-average spring productivity reported by banding crews … the data points to good prospects for hunters this season.”   

For example, the breeding population estimate of Mississippi Flyway Canada geese – a huge resident flock that stretches from southern Ontario and Manitoba across several flyway states, including Minnesota – was basically the same as last year at 1.43 million and similar to the 10-year average.

As for light geese, the midcontinent flock of lesser of snow geese – which migrates through the Central and parts of the Mississippi flyways – increased a whooping 71% to 7.99 million from last year. That said, the population is still 12% below the 10-year average.