Professor’s CWD prevalence model closely predicts this year’s rate in Minnesota

Looking back at the 2026 Minnesota white-tailed deer hunting season, University of St. Thomas Associate Professor Dr. Sergey Berg’s CWD model wasn’t too far off at predicting the disease’s prevalence.
Berg’s model specifically looked at deer permit areas 647 and 648, which make up most of Fillmore County in southeastern Minnesota. This year, the model predicted CWD would be prevalent in about 5.8% of the deer herd in DPAs 647 and 648. That prediction wasn’t far off from the DNR’s rate of about 6% based on the number of harvests and positive cases in those permit areas.

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